March 2026 was marked by strong but differently driven rallies across two major markets. In Nigeria, equities extended their upward trajectory on the back of improving macroeconomic conditions, sustained liquidity, and rising investor confidence. Globally, crude oil prices surged sharply due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruption fears rather than pure fundamentals. The result was a month defined by broad gains, intermittent volatility, and decisive technical breakouts that reshaped short-term market structure.
The Nigerian stock market opened the month with the NGX All-Share Index at 192,826.78 points and closed the month above the 200,000 psychological level. In the first week, the index advanced 2.15% to 196,968.15 points, while market capitalisation increased to ₦126.44 trillion. Weekly transactions stood at 3.695 billion shares valued at ₦177.69 billion, down from ₦196.71 billion in the preceding week, indicating rising prices despite softer volumes and suggesting selective accumulation.
During the second week, the index climbed further to 198,407.30 points, a 0.73% gain, with market capitalisation rising to ₦127.36 trillion. Trading value declined again to ₦164.85 billion. Price movement during this period was range-bound, with fluctuations reflecting profit-taking and short-term repositioning. Technically, the market was consolidating just below resistance, forming a base for a potential breakout while maintaining an overall bullish bias.
The third week delivered the most significant movement of the month as the NGX All-Share Index broke above the 200,000-point level. The index reached an intraday high of 202,559.41 points before closing at 201,156.86 points. Market capitalisation expanded to ₦129.13 trillion. Trading activity surged notably, with 8.76 billion shares valued at ₦267.25 billion exchanged during the week. This represented a sharp increase from the prior week’s ₦164.85 billion in value traded. A single session alone recorded ₦130.06 billion in transactions, highlighting strong participation and confirming the strength behind the breakout.
By the final week, the market experienced mild profit-taking. The index eased by 0.12% to close at 200,913.06 points, while market capitalisation slightly declined to ₦128.97 trillion. Trading activity also moderated to 3.95 billion shares worth ₦201.31 billion. Despite the pullback, the index remained above the 200,000 level, preserving the broader bullish structure. On a year-to-date basis, the market delivered a return of approximately 29.11%, reflecting sustained strength throughout the quarter.
Across the first quarter of 2026, the Nigerian Exchange Limited recorded substantial growth in valuation. Market capitalisation rose from ₦99.38 trillion at the beginning of the year to ₦129.21 trillion by March 31, 2026, representing an increase of about ₦29.83 trillion. The market crossed ₦100 trillion in early January, surpassed ₦120 trillion in February, and moved beyond ₦130 trillion intra-month in March amid heightened demand. In February alone, the market closed at approximately ₦123.76 trillion, before adding another ₦5.45 trillion by the end of March.
The Nigerian Exchange Limited and Nigerian Exchange Group benefited from this surge in activity, reflecting increased participation from both domestic and institutional investors. The NGX All-Share Index rose from 155,613.03 basis points earlier in the year to 201,287.78 basis points by the end of March, representing an increase of about 45,674.75 basis points or 29.35%. Sector performance was also strong, with the oil and gas index leading with a year-to-date return of 64.22% to 4,385.20 points. Industrial goods followed with 54.6% growth to 8,775.98 points, driven by stocks such as Dangote Cement Plc. The banking index gained 22.8% to 1,860.75 points, supported by recapitalisation expectations and earnings momentum from players like MTN Nigeria Communications Plc alongside other large-cap names, while consumer goods rose 9.66% to 4,359.85 points and insurance lagged with a 3.54% increase.
Macroeconomic conditions provided a supportive backdrop. Nigeria’s GDP expanded by 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with oil sector growth at 6.79% and non-oil growth at 3.99%. Foreign reserves improved to $45.71 billion gross and $34.8 billion net, compared to $23.11 billion in net reserves a year earlier. Inflation moderated steadily to 15.06% in February 2026, marking eleven consecutive months of easing. These figures contributed to improved investor sentiment, portfolio reallocation toward equities, and stronger valuation support across the market.
However, structural constraints remain evident. Power generation stood at about 1,212MW against an estimated demand of 20,000MW, underscoring persistent infrastructure challenges that continue to limit productivity and long-term economic expansion. Despite this, financial markets have continued to respond positively to reforms and improved macro stability.
From a technical standpoint, the NGX All-Share Index has entered a continuation phase after breaking above the 200,000-point level. This zone now acts as a key support level, while the recent highs around 202,559.41 points represent near-term resistance. With year-to-date returns above 29%, rising market capitalisation, and increased trading volumes during breakout phases, the market structure remains bullish. In the near term, consolidation is likely as gains are absorbed, but sustained liquidity and stable macroeconomic conditions could support further upside beyond current levels.
While the Nigerian equities market advanced in a relatively structured manner, the global oil market experienced a far more dramatic and volatile trajectory. March began with a sharp spike in oil prices, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered fears of a major supply disruption. U.S. crude oil surged 12.21% in a single session, rising by $9.89 to settle at $90.90 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 8.52% to close at $92.69 per barrel. On a weekly basis, Brent rose approximately 24%, while West Texas Intermediate advanced nearly 30%, marking one of the strongest rallies in recent years.
The second week saw the rally intensify as Brent crude broke above the $100 per barrel level, closing at $103.14, while WTI settled at $98.71 per barrel. This level had previously acted as a major resistance point, making the breakout technically significant. However, price action during this period became increasingly volatile, with sharp intraday swings driven by conflicting reports and evolving geopolitical developments. Particular attention was focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route responsible for approximately 20% of global oil supply, as tensions in the region escalated.
The third week extended the upward trend, with Brent trading above $109 per barrel and U.S. crude approaching $97 per barrel. Natural gas prices also surged, particularly in Europe, reflecting broader concerns about energy supply. Price movements during this phase became steeper, indicating strong momentum but also increasing the likelihood of instability. The market was clearly reacting to risk, with geopolitical developments driving sentiment and overshadowing traditional supply-demand dynamics.
By the final week of the month, oil prices reached their peak levels, with Brent climbing to $112.57 per barrel and WTI rising to $99.64 per barrel. Despite these highs, both benchmarks recorded slight weekly declines of around 1%, suggesting the beginning of a consolidation phase. Brent later traded around $110.86, while WTI hovered near $97.01 per barrel, indicating that the market was stabilizing after an extended rally.
From late February through the end of March, Brent crude surged by more than 50%, while WTI gained approximately 45%, highlighting the scale and speed of the move. From a technical standpoint, the oil market now appears overextended, with prices reflecting a significant risk premium tied to geopolitical uncertainty. While the broader trend remains upward, the steepness of the rally increases the likelihood of corrections, particularly if tensions ease or supply concerns diminish.
Looking ahead, the outlook for oil remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Continued escalation could sustain elevated prices or drive further gains, while any signs of de-escalation could trigger a sharp pullback. Volatility is therefore expected to remain high, with price movements likely to be driven more by headlines than by underlying fundamentals in the near term.
In summary, March 2026 highlighted a clear divergence in market behavior. The Nigerian stock market advanced within a structured, technically supported uptrend, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions and sustained investor confidence. In contrast, the global oil market surged in a volatile, sentiment-driven rally shaped by geopolitical tensions and supply fears. Both markets delivered strong gains, but while one reflected a strengthening economic narrative, the other underscored the impact of global uncertainty on commodity prices.
