Ahead of this morning’s release of the official Consumer Price Index data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), economic analysts at FSDH Research, on Thursday projected that following a gradual slowdown in the past few months, Nigerians will see a slight drop in the December numbers.
From 18.48% in November, the analysts foresee inflation sliding to 18.44%, “driven by lower than anticipated price increases within the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division, as well as the base effect.”
A statement by the FSDH pointed to the monthly Food Price Index (FPI) released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) showing that the FPI remained relatively the same in December, largely driven by a sharp fall in sugar prices.
“Our analysis indicates that the value of the Naira remained stable at the inter-bank market while it depreciated at the parallel market by 2.65% to close at US$/N491 from US$/N478 at the end of November. The depreciation in the parallel market led to a increase in the prices of imported consumer goods in Nigeria between the two months under review,” it added.
The prices of food items that FSDH Research monitored in December 2016 moved in varying directions, with vegetable oil, palm oil, meat, fish, sweet potatoes, onions and Irish potatoes rising by 25%, 21%, 14.2%, 12.5%, 7.1%, 4.2% and 4.17% respectively.
The prices of tomatoes and beans were down by 5% and 4.49% respectively, just as rice, garri, and yam remained unchanged.
“The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in a 1.04% increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 216.99 points.
“We also noticed increases in the prices of Clothing and Footwear; Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between November and December 2016.
“Our model indicates that the price movements in the consumer goods and services in December 2016 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 213.35 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.96%. We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in December will produce an inflation rate of 18.44%,” FSDH added.