By Roman Oseghale
In 40 years, from 1981 to 2021, the Naira has depreciated by 67,605% against the US Dollars, a currency the Naira was stronger than in 1981. In 2021, Nigeria had a Per Capita Income of US$2,085 compared to US$2,180 Per capita Income of 1981…..in 40 years Nigerians were poorer. Prior to this economic catastrophe, Nigeria had a productive economy in the 60’s where agriculture accounted for 54.7% of the GDP and 75% of our external earnings, as prices of crude oil soared in the 70’s which were orchestrated by global events, petrodollars poured into the economy, Nigeria abandoned a productive economy for an Asset Depletion and a Rent Seeking Economy which can also be best described as a Serendipity Economy.
The then Head of State would later make the famous remark that “Money was not our problem but how to spend it”, with the consequences of the economic model, this began the journey into Nigeria’s economic woes, challenges, and social problems which has plunged the country into a poverty trap.
Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, two countries rich in Mineral Resources but practicing the same economic model are projected to account for 40% of the total number of people living in Extreme Poverty by 2050, the 2023 Presidential Elections must not be about promises but about candidates and political parties with political ideologies that must change Nigeria’s economic model to an investment and a productive model, and must move away from the present model that has continued to impoverish Nigerians to reverse the trend of the 2050 projection. Data shows that no President, Head of State, Regime, or Government has performed outside the favourable price of crude oil since the early 70’s.
Today, Nigeria has recorded over US$102 billion in Trade Deficits between 2014 and 2020 as stated by The World Bank and an additional N1.9trn for 2021, as stated by the NBS, in total Nigeria has had eight straight years of over US$106 billion in Trade Deficits in a non-productive economy, this is why the Naira is on a free fall leading to rising inflation. Using Data and Empirical facts to map the economic trends, The Economic Tsunami that happened in the early 80’s is repeating itself all over again, this time the aftershocks will be worse if Nigeria does not change its economic model.
Watch Roman Oseghale give a detailed analysis from 1960 to date, using empirical facts and data how world events has shaped Nigeria’s economy rather than productivity and how Nigeria moved from a productive economy to a Rent Seeking Economy and the consequences that followed, and why Nigeria must return to a productive economy.
- Mr. Oseghale (@RomanOseghale), an Architect, a Consultant, and Business Survey Analyst, Intelligence Analyst, Economic Researcher, is Head Consultant/CEO at IntelServe Inc.