Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after Oman’s foreign minister announced upcoming nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S., easing earlier market fears of a possible Israeli strike on Iranian facilities. Brent crude dropped 47 cents to $64.91 per barrel, while U.S. WTI slipped 46 cents to $61.57.
Prices had initially risen on reports suggesting Israel might target Iran’s nuclear sites, but news of renewed diplomacy reduced the risk premium. Iran, a key OPEC producer, could retaliate by disrupting oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz if tensions escalate.
UK Inflation Surges In April, Casting Doubt on Summer Rate Cuts
UK inflation rose sharply to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, the biggest monthly jump since 2022 and above forecasts. The rise, driven largely by Easter travel costs, makes the UK the second most inflation-hit economy in Western Europe.
Markets reacted swiftly, slashing the odds of an August rate cut by the Bank of England from 60% to 40%. Services inflation, a key domestic metric, surged to 5.4%, well above predictions.
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves called the figures disappointing but pledged to push for lower prices. Economists now see a summer rate cut as less likely, with the BoE expected to hold a cautious stance.
Tax Break Expiry On UK Houses Buoys Sharpest Rise In Prices
UK house prices rose by 6.4% in the year to March, the fastest annual increase since December 2022 and up from 5.5% in February, according to the Office for National Statistics. The surge was largely driven by buyers rushing to complete purchases before the end-of-March expiry of temporary tax incentives for lower-priced and first-time buyer homes.
Despite the sharp rise in prices, forward-looking indicators suggest a potential slowdown in housing demand. Meanwhile, private-sector rents in April were 7.4% higher than a year earlier, down from 7.7% in March, marking the slowest annual growth in nearly two years.
South Africa’s April Inflation Surges To 2.8% Amid Food Price Rise
South Africa’s inflation rose slightly to 2.8% in April from 2.7% in March, driven by higher food prices, but stayed below the 3–6% target range. Monthly inflation slowed to 0.3%.
The rise sparked speculation about a lower inflation target, after Deputy Finance Minister Masondo suggested changes may be announced. While SARB Governor Kganyago supports a lower target, Finance Minister Godongwana is hesitant due to poverty and joblessness concerns.
The rand strengthened on expectations of a new target, which could limit future interest rate cuts. The central bank will give its next rate decision on May 29. Food and beverage inflation hit 4.0%, the highest in seven months.
Analysts Project 3.5% 2025Q1 GDP Growth For Nigeria On Non-Oil Gains, Banking Reforms
Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.2%–3.5% in Q1 2025, driven by a rebound in the non-oil sector, FX stability, and momentum from the ongoing banking recapitalization. Strong performances in finance, ICT, and trade are anchoring growth, as businesses recover from earlier currency shocks and investor confidence improves.
Despite these gains, persistent inflation, insecurity—especially in rural areas—and weak oil production continue to weigh on the overall outlook.
