Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
In 2024, oil prices dropped 3% for a second straight year as China’s economic struggles, sluggish demand recovery, and rising non-OPEC output kept the market oversupplied. Brent crude closed the year at $74.64 per barrel, down from $77.04 in 2023, while WTI remained flat at $71.72.
Record U.S. production and weaker global demand pushed Brent below $70 per barrel in September, its lowest since 2021. Analysts forecast prices to hover around $70 in 2025, with a supply surplus expected despite OPEC+ efforts to stabilize the market.
Global economic policies, including U.S. interest rates and potential changes under President-elect Trump, may further influence oil markets in 2025.
Turkey Raises Fuel Tax By 6% Without Impacting Inflation Goal
Turkey increased the special consumption tax on fuel by 6%, as per a presidential decree published in the Official Gazette. Adjusted semi-annually based on the producer price index (PPI), this hike is below the 5-month cumulative PPI increase of 7.12%.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek assured that the adjustments in fuel and tobacco taxes will not affect the country’s 2025 inflation targets. Turkey’s annual inflation was 47.1% in November, with projections indicating a decline to 26.5% by end-2025. An updated PPI is expected on January 3.
China’s December Manufacturing Slows, Services, Construction Show Recovery
China’s manufacturing growth eased in December, with the PMI dipping to 50.1 from 50.3, just above the growth threshold. Services and construction rebounded, supported by fiscal and monetary measures targeting weak consumption and a prolonged property crisis.
While new manufacturing orders reached an eight-month high, export orders and employment stayed weak. The non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.2, driven by gains in financial services, telecom, and travel. Analysts warn that recovery may falter without sustained stimulus, as trade risks and global headwinds persist.
Kenya’s December Inflation Edges Higher Amid Policy Easing Measures
Kenya’s consumer price inflation <KECPI=ECI> rose to 3.0% year-on-year in December, slightly up from 2.8% in November, according to data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased to 0.6%, compared with 0.3% in the previous month. The country maintains a medium-term inflation target range of 2.5% to 7.5%.
In a bid to bolster economic growth, Kenya’s central bank reduced its benchmark lending rate <KECBIR=ECI> by a more-than-anticipated 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5, citing sufficient room for a looser monetary policy as inflation remains within manageable levels.
Nigeria Intensifies Oil Theft Crackdown To Hit 3m BPD 2025 Production Target
The renewed operation, “Delta Sanity” (OPDS), launched by the petroleum ministry and navy, now includes armed drones, attack helicopters, and enhanced intelligence. Chief of Naval Staff Emmanuel Ogalla expressed confidence in surpassing production targets, noting significant gains since the operation’s launch last year.
Junior Oil Minister Heineken Lokpobiri highlighted the progress from 1 million bpd in August 2023 to current levels, citing the strengthened OPDS as pivotal to reaching the 2025 milestone. Rivers State further supported the initiative with six gunboats to aid the anti-theft drive.
