Market Update for April 25
Thursday’s trading session on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) was very volatile, reversing two days of bearish transition on the strength of the influx of Q1 earnings reports submitted by listed companies which have so far shown mixed performance.
Due to low valuation and prolonged market slide, prices of equities are still resisting further decline despite the weak corporate numbers ahead of government’s expected economic reform policies and the 2019 budget that is not yet passed by the National Assembly.
The changing market dynamics at this time is seeking external and internal stimuli to enhance real recovery as equity prices remain attractive and cheap for new entry as portfolio rebalancing on Q1 scorecards continues. Blue-chip stocks that have suffered losses before now but have potentials of rebounding on the strength of its fundamentals and the sector or industry operation should be the target of market players now.
Trading for the day started out on a positive note in the morning, but pulled back between mid-morning to early afternoon, after touching intraday highs of 29,986.11 basis points from a low of 29,862.84bps. It reversed marginally up to finish the day at 29,919.44bps on positive sentiments for energy, banking, and consumer goods stocks.
Market technicals for the session were positive but mixed with volume traded higher than previous days in the midst of positive breadth and mixed sentiments as revealed by Investdata’s daily sentiment report that shows a buy position of 46% and sell volume of 54% of the total daily transaction volume index of 0.89.
The momentum behind the day’s market performance was relatively strong and looking up as shown by Money Flow Index of 56.61 points, from previous day’s 54.29bps, indicating a gradual inflow of funds into the market, despite the seeming low liquidity, just as buying interest for cheap stocks is on the rise.
Index and Market Cap
At the end of day’s trading, the NSE All-Share index rose marginally by 21.13bps, closing at 29,919.44bps, after opening at 29,900.11bps, representing a 0.07% growth, while market capitalization inched N7.94bn up to N11.24tr from its opening value of N11.24tr, also representing 0.07% gain.
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Thursday’s upturn in activities was driven by buying interest in stocks like: Julius Berger (READ MORE), Seplat Petroleum, NB (READ), Zenith Bank, FBN Holdings, Stanbic IBTC, Guaranty Trust Bank, Dangote Flour Mills (READ MORE), Oando, Lafarge Africa and Forte Oil, among others. This impacted positively on the Year-to-Date loss, reducing it to 4.81%, just as the decline in market capitalization stood at N487.43bn, or 4.28%, from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.
Mixed Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes for the day were largely bullish, except for the NSE Industrial goods and insurance that closed in red, while others rose higher, led by the NSE Oil/Gas and banking indexes with 2.23% and 0.14% respectively. Market breadth remained positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 19:17.
Market activities in volume and value were up by 85.82% and 176.29% respectively to 588.5m shares worth N7.27 billion, as against previous day’s 304.86 million units valued at N2.63bn. Volume was driven by financial services, consumer goods, conglomerates, construction and oil stocks like Julius Berger, Japaul oil, Transcorp, Unilever, FBNH and Zenith Bank.
Cutix and Forte Oil were the best-performing stocks for the day, with gains of 10% and 9.85% respectively, closing at N1.87 and N26.70 per share, on market forces and sentiment. On the flip side, Guinness Nigeria and Julius Berger lost 10% each, closing at N48.60 and N22.50, on market forces and profit booking respectively.
Market Outlook
We expect the mixed performance to continue as more Q1 numbers hit the market to reveal and insight what investors should expect from these companies, ahead of 2019Q1 GDP and budget passage next week.
Investors look to government’s policy direction as the market faces low liquidity problems in the ongoing Q1 earnings reporting season, vis-à-vis market and economic fundamentals.
Given the drop in the prices of major blue chips in recent times, creating entry opportunities, we expect speculative trading to shape the market direction going forward.
The volatility witnessed from last week until Thursday was driven by traders and investors repositioning ahead of Q1 corporate earnings from the major listed companies.
The ongoing volatility will continue as investors and fund managers rebalance their portfolios, with eyes fixed on political space and ongoing quarterly earnings position and post-election market dynamics. Investors should review their positions in line with their investment goals, the strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.
However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers to guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain low in the midst of mixed company numbers, weak economic and market fundamentals.
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Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
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