By George Pavel

Crude oil futures remain range-bound, due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade tensions and shifting tariff policies. The tensions have heightened concerns over global economic growth, which is expected to negatively affect energy demand. However, oil prices could continue to react to US and Chinese comments on tariffs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2025 global oil demand forecast, projecting the slowest growth in five years, further contributing to the subdued market sentiment. Also adding to concerns over global demand, increased output plans from OPEC+ members have exacerbated the oversupply situation, deepening the supply-demand imbalance.

Despite some initial optimism surrounding potential tariff rollbacks, macroeconomic headwinds are expected to continue limiting any significant price recovery. Without stronger support from broader market conditions, crude oil prices could remain near their lows. Moreover, rising U.S. crude inventories suggest ample supply, further restricting upward price movement.

Pavel is General Manager at Naga.com Middle East