• Agric, Industry, Non-Oil Sectors As Drivers
• Targets 10GW Of Electricity

The Federal Government, on Tuesday published its much-awaited Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), which projects that from -1.54% growth last year, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would rise to 2.19% this year, before achieving a faster 4.8% in 2018.
According to the document released by the Federal Ministry of Budget and Planning, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow at a slightly slower rate of 4.5% in 2019, before galloping by 7% in 2020, the last year covered by the document.
Growth for the period, is expected to come mainly from sectors such as agriculture, industry, services and non-oil, even as oil GDP is nonetheless expected to remain strong during the period.
Agriculture, which the current administration is focusing on to ensure that Nigeria becomes self-sustaining in food production, while reducing the impact of food related inflation, is expected to contribute 5.03% this year, up from 4.69%, before rising to 7.04%, 7.23% and 8.37% in the 2018, 2019 and 2020 fiscal years respectively.
Industry is projected to grow by 7.74% in 2017, as against last year’s -10.13%, declining 6.11% next year, 6.07% by 2019, and then 8.02% by 2020; just as the negative 0.51% growth by the services sector in 2016, is expected to rise to 1.26% this year, before turning positive at 3.16% next year, dropping to 2.45% n 2019 and 5.82% by the following year.
From -10.13% growth 2016, the industry sector is expected to grow at 7.74% this year, 6.11% next year, 6.07% in 2019, before berthing at 8.02% in 2020.
The document also targets that non-oil GDP would grow from -0.07% last year to 0.2% this year, before soaring to 4.83% next year, 4.52% in 2019, and then 7.28% in 2020.
Meanwhile, oil GDP which fell to -15.41% in 2016 in the heat of the significant drop in production as a result of the twin evils of pipeline sabotage by militants in Nigeria’s troubled Niger Delta region and the significant drop in oil price at the international markets, is projected to grow by 24.3% this year owing to the ongoing rise in price and the government’s peace initiatives in the region. The oil GDP is expected to stabilize to 4.55% in 2018, then 4.35% the following year, before closing at 4.45% in 2020.
Also, the document targets that from 18.55% in 2016, inflation rate would drop to 15.74% this year, 12.42% next year, then close 2019 at 13.39%, before declining to 9.9% at the end of the review period.
Oil production is expected to rise from 1.7 million barrels per day in 2016, to 2.2mbpd this year, 2.3mbpd next year and then 2.4 and 2.5mbpd production output in 2019 and 2020.
Also, unemployment, a major measure of a nation’s economic ill-health is projected to rise first from 14.2% in 2016 to 16.32% this year, before dropping to 14.51% next year, 12.9% in 2019 and 11.23% by 2020.
The ERGP expects that “by 2020, Nigeria will have made significant progress towards achieving structural economic change and having a more diversified and inclusive economy.
“Overall, the Plan is expected to deliver on the following key outcomes: Stable Macroeconomic Environment: The inflation rate is projected to trend downwards from the current level of almost 19 per cent to single digits by 2020. It is also projected that the exchange rate will stabilize as the monetary, fiscal and trade policies are fully aligned. This outcome will be achieved through policies that seek to remove uncertainty in the exchange rate and restore investors’ confidence in the market.”
The Federal Government expects also that the agricultural transformation and food security efforts would remain a stable driver of GDP growth over the period, boosting “growth by expanding crop production and the fisheries, livestock and forestry sub-sectors as well as developing the value chain. Investment in agriculture will drive food security by achieving self-sufficiency in tomato paste (in 2017), rice (in 2018) and wheat (in 2020). Thus, by 2020, Nigeria is projected to become a net exporter of key agricultural products, such as rice, cashew nuts, groundnuts, cassava and vegetable oil.”
In the area of power and petroleum products sufficiency, “the ERGP aims to achieve 10GW of operational capacity by 2020 and to improve the energy mix, including through greater use of renewable energy,” following which Nigeria becomes a net exporter of refined petroleum products by 2020.