Gold In Volatile Trade Amid Uncertainties Over U.S Election, Fiscal Spending

By Ahmad Assiri

Gold’s recent journey has seen a sell-off from $2,750/oz to $2,710/oz, followed by a recovery to $2,735/oz—underscoring the metal’s enduring appeal amid turbulent market conditions. This price action reflects an ongoing tug-of-war between profit-taking by short-term traders and persistent buying interest from investors committed to accumulating gold on dips.

While the recent dip might hint at a temporary consolidation phase, it has also proven gold’s ability to attract fresh bids quickly, reinforcing the notion that key buyers are stepping in with confidence. This demonstrates that despite short-term corrections, gold’s value proposition remains intact as a store of value.

The approach of the U.S. election continues to loom over markets, potentially stoking fresh uncertainties. Regardless of the electoral outcome, fiscal spending is likely to expand, fuelling further speculation of long-term U.S. dollar weakness. Whether a red sweep prioritizes defense and traditional energy investments or a blue sweep delivers expansive social and green energy programs, fiscal expansion appears inevitable—bolstering gold’s appeal.

The recent pullback also reflects the interplay with rising bond yields, which may temporarily reduce gold’s attractiveness. However, with geopolitical uncertainties persisting, the longer-term outlook for gold remains positive. Investors across Asia, particularly those sensitive to dollar movements, may also continue accumulating gold as part of currency diversification strategies.

Given the resilience observed around $2,710/oz, the recovery to $2,735 suggests that any future pullbacks could be viewed as opportunities to accumulate further. The next significant move will hinge on broader macroeconomic developments, but if fiscal policies remain expansive and volatility persists, gold could well re-test the $2,750 level—and potentially push further in the months ahead.

  • Assiri is a Research Strategist at Pepperstone