Nigeria’s Achieves 2.55% GDP Growth In 2019Q4

•Growth, Result Of FG’s Medium-term Plan- Finance Minister
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Monday, published data showing that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) achieved 2.55% (year-on-year) growth in real terms in the 2019 fourth quarter, from 2.28% in the corresponding period of 2018.
The growth, the highest quarterly growth since the country went into recession at -1.58%in 2016, represents an increase of 0.27% points when compared with the third quarter of 2019, resulting in a 2.27% real annual growth rate for the year, as against 1.91% in the preceding year.
Aggregate GDP for the period nominal terms soared from N35.230,607tr in 2018Q4, to N39.577tr, translating to a year-on-year growth rate of 12.34%, which is -0.31% points lower, relative to the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 and –0.96% points lower than the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.
The nation’s oil sector recorded 6.36% real growth year-on-year in the period under review, indicating an increase of 7.98% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018. Growth decreased by –0.13% points when compared to Q3 2019 which was 6.49%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector grew by –20.87% in Q4 2019, while on an annual basis, it recorded 4.59% growth in 2019, higher compared to 0.97% recorded in 2018.
“The Oil sector contributed 7.32% to total real GDP in Q4 2019, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.06% and 9.77% respectively. Oil contributed 8.78% to real GDP in 2019,” the report noted.
Specifically, Nigeria recorded average daily oil production of 2.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the 2019Q4, as against the 1.91mbpd in the same period of 2018, but down by –0.04mbpd from the production volume of 2.04mbpd in the preceding quarter. “Nevertheless, it is notable that oil production remained consistently at or above 2.0mbpd all through 2019 (Figure2),” the NBS stressed further.
The non-oil sector accounted for 91.22% of real GDP growth, as against 92.68% in the previous quarter, helped by 53.64% from the services sector; agriculture, 26.09% and industries, 20.27%.
Analysts say the growth is in line with expectations, representing the strongest rise since 2015Q3, even as the non-oil sector continues to show resilience, expanding by 2.26% yoy, compared to 1.85% in 2019Q3).
Reacting to the GDP report, Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed said it is the result of the Federal Government’s medium-term development plan, which charted “the trajectory for the economy to exit from recession and return to the path of sustainable, Inclusive and Diversified growth for the benefit of all Nigerians.
The Muhammadu Buhari administration, she told stakeholders at a parley with the Nigerian capital market community on Monday, “remains committed to maintaining this growth as we transit from the ERGP (Economic Recovery and Growth Plan), to longer-term successor socio-economic development plans.
Growth in Real GDP, she stressed, “has been sustained for 11 consecutive quarters, with 2.55% recorded in the Fourth Quarter of 2019, up from 2.28% in Q3: 2019. Overall, growth was 2.27% in 2019, significantly higher than the 1.91% recorded in 2018. Inflation has been tamed from 8.72% in January 2017, to 11.02% in August 2019 and 12.13% in January 2020.
“This attenuation in the Consumer Price Index (‘CPI’) was achieved through effective fiscal, monetary and trade policy coordination,” she stressed.

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