By Joseph Dahrieh

Crude oil futures have reversed their gains from early March, with prices falling after U.S. President Trump’s tariff announcements, stoking concerns over potential global trade tensions and its impact on oil demand.

This pullback reflects market uncertainty and could weigh on global crude prices in the near term, particularly if trade tensions hinder economic growth in key oil-consuming regions. The outlook suggests caution, with volatility likely to increase as markets digest the full implications of the tariffs. Longer-dated futures contracts also saw declines in prices, indicating expectations of long-term risks for crude prices.

Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to increase its oil output adds further bearish pressure. The organisation is aiming to supply up to 411,000 barrels per day in May, which is significantly higher than previously planned. The excess supply could add to the pressure on the oil market, in particular if demand is affected by the changes in US trade policy, leaving the market without support.

Dahrieh is Managing Principal at Tickmill