Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices climbed nearly 2% on Friday, posting their first weekly gain since mid-April, as a U.S.-UK trade deal and optimism ahead of U.S.-China talks boosted market sentiment. Brent rose 1.7% to $63.91 and WTI gained 1.9% to $61.02, with both benchmarks up over 4% for the week. Positive U.S. trade moves, including reduced tariffs on British exports and tough rhetoric toward China, lifted investor confidence. Tensions in the Middle East and limited OPEC+ output further supported prices, though uncertainty lingers due to global economic and geopolitical factors.
Canada’s Jobless Rate Hits 6.9% Amid Tariff Pressures, Fueling Rate Cut Expectations
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April—the highest since November—as U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles impacted the manufacturing sector, shedding 31,000 jobs. Overall employment grew marginally by 7,400 jobs, missing expectations. The jobless population neared 1.6 million, with many struggling to find work. The Bank of Canada warned of slowing growth and signaled possible rate cuts. Market bets now show a 55% chance of a rate cut in June. Wage growth remained steady at 3.5%, while the employment rate fell to a six-month low of 60.8%.
Italy’s Industrial Output Disappoints Despite First Quarterly Rise Since 2022
Italy’s industrial production rose just 0.1% in March, falling short of the 0.5% rebound expected after a 0.9% drop in February. Output was down 1.8% year-on-year, extending a 26-month decline. Although Q1 saw a 0.4% increase—the first since 2022—analysts doubt it signals lasting recovery.
The government recently cut its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6%, citing delays in EU recovery fund deployment and the threat of U.S. trade tariffs. The Bank of Italy warns these tariffs could trim over 0.5% from growth between 2025 and 2027.
Egypt’s Inflation Climbs To 13.9% In April, Fuel Prices Drive Increase
Egypt’s inflation rose to 13.9% in April, up from 13.6% in March, in line with expectations. Monthly prices increased by 1.5%, while food prices grew by 6.0%. The rise is mainly due to higher fuel prices.
Inflation spiked after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, peaking at 38% in September 2023. M2 money supply growth slowed to 25.8% in March, down from February’s 33.9%. Economic measures, including currency devaluation and IMF support, are helping stabilize Egypt’s economy.
Nigeria’s Oil Production Falls Short of OPEC Quota Amid Ongoing Challenges
Nigeria’s oil production dropped 4.37% in March, from 1.465 million bpd in February to 1.401 million bpd, according to OPEC’s April report. This shortfall widens the gap between actual output and the country’s OPEC target of 1.5 million bpd, leaving it 6.6% below target and 32% behind the 2025 production goal of 2.06 million bpd.
Persistent issues like underinvestment, aging infrastructure, and oil theft continue to limit output, putting pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal stability. Lower production, coupled with falling oil prices, threatens government revenues and economic growth, highlighting the need for investment and infrastructure improvements to boost long-term oil output.
