NAHCO (Nigerian Aviation Handling Company) has scripted one of the most fascinating comeback stories in the Nigerian equities market, embodying the essence of patience, resilience, and breakout potential.
The Fall from Glory (2007 – 2017)
In 2007, the share price of NAHCO hit an all-time high of ₦73.40 each, riding the wave of a booming market. However, what followed was a decade-long decline that saw the stock crash from those lofty highs to a dismal low of around ₦2.00 by 2017. This was a painful journey for long-term investors who kept faith with the stock, as the company was largely ignored and traded in obscurity.
The Long Consolidation Era (2008 – 2023)
From 2008 to 2023, NAHCO’s price was trapped in a prolonged consolidation phase. The ₦14.80 resistance level—established in 2008—proved to be a major psychological and technical ceiling, with multiple attempts at breaking it failing over the years.
This 15-year period can be described as a “base-building era,” where smart money slowly accumulated positions while the broader market paid little attention. The flat Bollinger Bands, declining moving averages, and tight price ranges during this period confirmed the stagnation.
The Price Momentum Breakout (2023)
In 2023, however, something dramatic happened. The glass ceiling got shattered, and NAHCO decisively broke above the ₦14.80 per share resistance, a level it had not seen since 2008. This breakout was confirmed by an explosive increase in volume and sustained upward momentum. Its price surged past all moving averages, flipping long-term technical indicators bullish for the first time in over a decade.
The Recovery Mission: Recouping Lost Ground
Since the breakout, NAHCO has entered a powerful parabolic rally, recovering previously lost levels with conviction. The structure of the rally has followed a well-formed ascending channel, supported by bullish momentum and increasing investor confidence.
From ₦14.80, the price accelerated to ₦65.50 (as of April 2025), representing over 350% gain in under two years. The momentum and historical symmetry suggest this move is far from over.
The Next Target: ₦73.40 and Beyond
The next logical technical target is the all-time high of ₦73.40, which now serves as the major resistance. A break and close above this zone would mark a full-cycle recovery, making NAHCO one of the rare Nigerian stocks to return to its pre-2008 crisis levels.
Our Bullish Outlook: ₦85 – ₦100
With strong momentum, healthy volume, and favorable sector dynamics, NAHCO is primed to enter price discovery mode upon clearing ₦73.40. Our outlook places the next long-term target zone between ₦85 and ₦100, based on Fibonacci extensions, historical symmetry, and channel projection.
