Nigeria’s market and economic outlook for 2019 second quarter (Q2) remains unpredictable and unstable as institutional and foreign investors gradually exit their positions ahead of the 2019 general election and unclear monetary and fiscal policy in the last quarter, which was of serious concern for investors. the sustainability of the rebounding crude oil price in the internationally markets as uncertainty over the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) managed price movements in the face of political instability and unpredictability as big money is looking for better returns. The continued firming up in the global economy offers good prospects in the midst of challenges and optimistic outlook for global growth forecast which appears to be re-balancing in the face of expected trade war due to the recent tariff on steel and aluminum by US government.
The relative peace and security in the nation’s oil bearing Niger Delta region and stability of oil output has supported the upside in the nation’s revenue, economic health and wellbeing which if not sustained in this pre-election year may reverse all the progress recorded so far.
As the second quarter begins after the Easter break on Tuesday, more positive economic data are expected, especially inflation figure for March, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and GDP expected to confirm that the economy is on the path of growth.
As the earnings season for 2017 full year reporting officially comes to end, company fundamentals are assessable as they are in the public domain, besides the situation of the market and other economic fundamentals to help investors make investment decisions about where and when to be in and out of particular stocks. This is especially true with the first quarter earnings reports expected in the market this April and beyond.
Traders and investors who understand the operations of the stock market should take this opportunity to position in some sectors for medium to long term gains, especially in the consumers goods, banking, Insurance, Agribusiness. Service sector and industrial goods.
The recently published full year financials of many listed companies will help you to project whether the company is likely to post a better Q1 or not, after you have studied the quarterly earnings trend before buying into the stock.
Equity price movement as we have always noted in INVESTDATA, is a function of earnings. This is in addition to information emanating from these companies, which are expected to attract more market players, dividend investors and possibly foreign bargain hunters to the market. In the Nigerian stock market, the month of April is the peak period of quarterly earnings season which suggests that traders should be in the market before the quarterly numbers start rolling in.
What to expect in April and May
• More quarterly and few full year earnings would be released. Earnings from blue-chip companies may strengthen market fundamentals, if positive.
• The first MPC meeting of the yeari2018 holds on Tuesday and Wednesday and expected to give economic direction and sustain the ongoing recovery as the market and analysts expect rate cut, just as inflation is heading to single-digit, while making borrowing cost cheaper.
• Expect more volatility as sell down may continue if the political environment becomes tense.
• The source of funds in the market may cause continued fluctuations, given that both local and foreign institutional investors trade in the market. The up and down movements will continue, depending on a combination of economic and company fundamentals.
• Investors are expected to reshuffle their portfolios to invest in equities with strong fundamental and prospects of growing their earnings going forward.
• Expect a more vibrant market as a result of market players positioning for second quarter, even as we expect liquidity to improve.
• Market outlook for these months are dicey being pre-election year, but invest wisely, using dates, bids, offers and volume when taking decisions.
• Managing risk and protecting capital at this point is very important, so you will be able to determine when to buy or sell by watching the stocks and the market, using technical analysis.
• Let numbers emanating from companies guide your decisions and how long you stay in that position.
As the market phase is changing, this is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.
Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the Chart Summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.
Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
We say big thanks to all the participants and resources persons that made Investdata Investment education workshop debut in Port Harcourt a success. The trading and investing education train move to Abuja on April 14, 2018, at Chida International Hotel, Plot 224 Solomon Lar Way, Utako District. Abuja. Time is 10.00 am.
Investdata Trading and Investing education train move to Abuja
Theme: The Power of Fundamental and Technical Analysis In Protecting your Capital In Pre-Election Year and Beyond”,
Date: April 14, 2018
Venue: Chida International Hotel, Plot 224 Solomon Lar Way, Utako District. Abuja.
Time is 10.00
What to learn from our team of experts/analysts at this workshop
1. ABC of Technical Analysis for trading Equity Market and other
2. The 3 Simple trading secrets that can help anyone succeed in equities investing
3. The tenets of stock trading and investing Using TA
4. Trading and investing strategies that will help you manage your risk, protect your capital and profit from market oscillation.
5. Self-online trading.
6. The psychology of trading and investing and how it will make you successful.
Access to the workshop will cost a minimum of N5000 purchase of INVESTDATA comprehensive stock market trading materials to enhance your investing knowledge for profitable investment.
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467