Market Update for December 4
The seesaw movement on the Nigerian Exchange continued at the midweek, wiping away the previous session loss amid expanding market internals and buying interests across some major sectors. Similarly, the composite NGX All-Share index closed higher on a high traded volume and positive breadth, indicating the beginning of markup phase by smart money while at the same time forming a top reversal chart pattern at the end of trading. This was after breaking out the strong resistance level of 98,000 psychological line in the midst of buying sentiment and momentum flow looking up. This current volatility is likely to lead to 2024 Santa Claus rally any moment from now, so, it is time to position in the right sectors and stocks.
The mixed momentum on the NGX is likely to continue, as investors and traders reposition their portfolios, react to corporate announcements and consolidation taking place in different sectors ahead of year-end seasonality and Q4 earnings reporting season in January 2025. The index rebounded on strong momentum level to test 98,273.60bps.
Such retracement at the current state and time of the market creates buying opportunities for discerning players as macroeconomic data and economic events signaled where investors and traders should shop ahead of Santa Claus rally in December and January effects that had turned a positive patterns and trends since 2020, looking forward to take action and position in the right stocks at the right prices. As the nation economic managers continue with their mismatch economic policies that is driving low productivity and runaway inflation of today.
During the session, Cornerstone released its Q1 earnings forecast, while PZ notified the market of its resolutions at AGM. Airtel Africa, Aradel Holdings and Ucap informed the market of insiders dealing in their shares.
Money flow and other momentum tools turned north, presenting buy opportunities for bargain hunters who understand the importance of buying low and selling high in any market condition in the midst ongoing volatility. The buying sentiment in the midst of expanding breadth are creating the perfect setup for high probability of reversal or continuation to catch end of year repositioning. Also, as the index trades above the T-line and the two moving averages of 50-EMA and 50-SMA, this indicate return of strength gradually in the midst of changing market fundamentals and technicals on the NGX and the economy.
Technically, the NGX is in a markup phase in the midst of recovery and volatility, as candlestick formation and momentum indicators reveal a somewhat strength and weakness in the market. ADX looking down to read 28.66 points, while RSI and Money Flow Index were up at 55.97 and 45.30 points against the previous session’s 49.88 and 38.96 points respectively. Consequently, market players should watch this current trend and trade wisely in the face of funds entering the market on a buying sentiment in some sectors and profit taking in others. Also, trading volume pattern continued to oscillates, suggesting buying interest and selloffs in the market amid players revaluing the market and policy direction of the government that look confused.
To navigate the rest of this year and beyond profitably, running with economic events, fundamental and technical analysis, join investdata live sessions at noon every Monday, Wednesday and Friday trading day “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent range market. Despite the oscillating volume of transaction witnessed in recent time, it is time to go shopping for undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.
Oil prices at midweek inched down to continue its oscillation, trading at $73.58 per barrel in the midst of positive factory data from China and ceasefire between Israel and Hezobollah ahead of OPEC meeting, which comes with dilemma to increase or cut production in order to support price in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia war with Ukraine. As US President-elect tariff threats its trade’s partners and global economy outlook. The rising geopolitical uncertainties across many economies remains a threat to the global economy and energy consumption. This trend may likely continue for the rest of 2024, while the up and down movement continues to drive volatility, even as the raging war between Ukraine and Russia continues to influence global oil supply and demand.
Meanwhile, midweek’s trading started in the upside and it was sustained throughout the session, despite oscillating on buying interest in mid and large cap stocks, while there were profit taking in other companies. This situation pushed the NGX’s index to an intra-day high of 98,273.64bps from its lows of 97,702.56bps, before closing above its opening level at 98,174.99bps.
Market technicals were positive and strong with higher volume when compared to the previous session in the midst of breadth favoring the bulls on a buying sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 83% buy position and 17% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 1.05 points, just as energy behind the day’s performance was weak as Money Flow Index inched up to read 45.30pts, from the previous day’s 38.96pts, indicating that funds entered the market.
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Index and Market Caps
At the end of trading, the benchmark NGX All-Share Index gained 472.43 basis points, closing at 98,174.99bps from 97,702.56bps, representing a 0.48% growth, while market capitalization rose by N286bn, at N59.51tr from the previous day’s N59.23tr, representing a 0.48% appreciation in value.
Attention: If you have not signed up for INVESTDATA’s buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay, because the number of stocks entering their oversold range has increased as market correction and volatility call for intelligent trading and positive chart patterns to be on our watchlist. These stocks have potentials to retrace, considering their earnings prospects and the oscillating moves in an upmarket and weak economy.
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The session upturn was driven by position taking and accumulation in the shares of Seplat, Wapco, NEM, Cornerstone, Accesscorp and Golden Breweries, among others. This impacted positively on Year-To-Date gain as it inched up to 31.30%, while Market capitalization gain stood at N15.43tr, representing 45.45% growth over its opening level for the year.
Mixed Sector Indices
Sectoral performance indexes were mixed, as NGX Consumer goods and Banking indexes closed lower by 0.17% and 0.07% respectively, while NGX Oil/Gas index led the advancers after gaining 3.21% followed by Insurance and Industrial goods with 1.60% and 0.81% respectively.
Market breadth was positive, as gainers outnumbered losers in the ratio of 42:21, while transactions in volume and value were down after investors exchanged 521.92 million shares worth N19.93bn. Volume was driven by trades in Tantalizer, Wapco, Accesscorp, Cutix and UBA.
Golden Breweries and Thomas Watt were the best performing stocks, gaining 9.83% each, closing at N4.47 and N1.90 per share respectively on the back of positive sentiment and market forces respectively. On the flip side, Sunu Assurance and Learn Africa lost 9.85% each, closing at N4.21 and N2.93per share, purely on profit taking.
Market Outlook
We expect mixed sentiments to continue on bargain hunting amidst profit taking, repositioning, low valuation and position taking by smart money for year-end. Also, sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing continued in the market with investors taking advantage of pullbacks and correction to buy into value.
This is amid the volatility and pullbacks that add more strength to upside potential. Consequently, investors should take advantage of price correction. Also looking at the trends and events across the globe and domestically.
Take Action
Invest 2025 Traders & Investors Summit
Theme: Profit From 2025 Once A Decade Investing Opportunities & Patterns
Sub-Topics
- Impact of 2025 National Budget & Changing Government Policies On Investment Windows, by Mr Peter Sunday Adebola, Managing Director/CEO Edgefield Capital Management Ltd
- Opportunities In Fixed Income Market & Inflation Outlook In 2025, by Mr Teriba Adeboye, MD/CEO, Qualinvest Capital ltd
- Maximize 2025 The “Year Ending In 5” Effect: Uncover 10 Golden Stocks For Profitably Investing, by Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd
- Real Estate Investment Opportunities in 2025 Amidst Fiscal Policy Reforms Of The Government, Mr Tope Ojo, Managing Partner,Tope & Tunde Estate Surveyors & Valuers
- How To Navigate The Alternative Markets To Grow Your Portfolio in 2025, by AlhajiGarba Kurfi, MD/CEO APT Securities & Funds Ltd
- Building All-Weather Portfolio To Stay Ahead Of NGX IN 2025 & Beyond, by Mr Abiola Rasaq, Former Head, Investor Relations & Portfolio Investments United Bank For Africa Plc
- Profitably Chart Patterns & Timing To Trade “Year Ending In 5” Effect On NGX In 2025, by Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, ED Operations at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd
- The Place Of Corporate Earnings In Trading & Investing For Retirement, by Mr Kebira Jimoh Aruna, MD/CEO GlobalView Capital Ltd
2025 isn’t just any year—it’s part of a powerful historical trend known as the ‘Year Ending in 5’ effect. This phenomenon is one of the most consistent in the stock market and has been evident for decades. Years ending in 5 have delivered the highest average returns of any year in a decade. In fact, looking back over the last century, the stock market during these years has consistently outperformed others, often by a significant margin.
If you want to be prepared for this rare opportunity, the time to act is now.
Take away from this summit includes:
How to construct a resilient and Powerful Portfolio that adapts to market changes.
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- How to anticipate big sector moves in 2025
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- 10 golden stocks for 2025
Date: December 7, 2025
Fee: 60k
Venue: Zoom
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Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
08028164085
