Mixed Sentiment Still As Players Digest Impact Of Rate Hike, Amidst Quarter-end Window Dressing

Market Update for September 28

Trading activities on the Nigerian Exchange continued its seesaw movement at the midweek, reflecting market reactions to Tuesday’s interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the midst of illiquidity in the system, as funds look for higher returns following the latest 150 basis points increase in monetary policy rate to 15.5%.

Also, the CBN’s latest Treasury Bill auction rates for September jumped across all the tenors with the 364-day bill rising by 2.25 points to 12%, the highest in the post-COVID era in the face of inflationary environment at 20.52% to leave this window in real negative return that requires that investors undertake portfolio realignment and management to preserve value of their investment at the end of the day.

The benchmark NGX All-Share index inched up, halting the previous day’s negative outing in the midst of panic selling and profit taking due to the rate hike, despite the buying position into few blue chip stocks helping the make, closing marginally up on a low traded volume and increased negative market breadth.

Meanwhile, cautious trading continued at this critical support levels of the market as all eyes are on Q3 corporate earnings and low valuation of stocks in different sectors to attract smart money, as September consumer price index is predicated to be above 21.24%, amidst portfolio rebalancing ahead of quarter-end and last quarter of the year seasonality.

The rate hike adjustment has further triggered another sector rotation and selling pressure in the market, despite the seeming mixed sentiment at the end of midweek trading, just as the consequence of aggressive hawkish monetary policy across the globe, which caused some countries to go back to intervention to safe the collapse of their economy, as governments high debt rate wouldn’t survive this rising rate as World Bank and IMF have been warning central banks to rethink and avoid pushing the global economy into recession.  We saw what is already happening in UK, China, Japan and others. Nigerian central bank and its committee should have a rethink before things goes out of hand.

The last quarter of 2022 is finally here, but we need to finish the year strong, so join us this Saturday at Investdata Master Class, this is where we take a step back, analyze the general direction of the major trends, and then break it down into shorter timeframes for more tactical opportunities.  The low valuation of NGX, high earnings and dividend yields on improved earnings released so far in the year, coupled with the expectation of third quarter corporate earnings to shape the market direction in the face of inflation hitting 17 years high above 20%, causing many players stay on the fence, waiting to confirm direction before jumping in, as outlook for the economy and the financial market remains unpredictable.

Despite the lingering high interest rates atmosphere, rising inflation and slowing industrial output as a result of policy changes and uncertainty around the globe, there are sectors, industries and individual stocks that are still seeing positive activities from traders and investors. There are stocks players should pay attention to, as the correction in the NGX index action create buying opportunity in some sectors and individual defensive stocks with high dividend high yield and positive earnings growth.

Market internals are revealing the hidden forces that work for both short and long-term traders to get into the best position and allow you to stay in them for maximum profit, despite the market rebounding or weaken further. The market’s internals that measure the forces behind the advancers and associated volume of the uptick or downtick. These two ratios tell you everything you need to know to predict future price movements. So, the volume pattern and index structure in recent sessions show position taking, while funds enter some stocks as revealed by money flow index which need to be confirmed, especially as negative sentiment supported the previous session candlestick formation.

At the current phase of the market, the decision of when to buy or sell individual stocks or an index, is always based on price actions and the money flow direction which combines price and volume. We only want to hold stocks that are increasing, or at least retaining their value, while avoiding equities that are on the decline, and the toolset to evaluate price action is technical analysis.

This is not the time to use classical technical analysis that does not works in the changing volatile market like ours today. That is why it’s never been more important to join me at the upcoming Q4 Master Class in October, the largest quarterly traders’ summit in Nigeria. I will be sharing new actionable strategies and real trading education that will arm you with the tools that will help you meet your financial goals for the rest of the year 2022 and beyond. Also, the last quarter of the year is around the corner, are you prepare to take advantage of seasonality to recover your losses and boost your gains?

To navigate the rest of the month profitably using fundamental and technical analysis to run, join investdata live sessions at noon every trading day “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent range market. Despite the mixed sentiment witnessed, it is time to go shopping for undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.”

Oil price continued its oscillation, after rebounding powerfully to touch $ 89.78 before trading at $87.93 on projection of oil hitting $100 again before the end of 2022 on supply tighten due to Russia Ukraine war in the midst of weak demand and fear of recession around the globe on hawkish monetary policy by central banks, just as China COVID-19 lockdown come to an end. The up and down movement of oil price also continues to drive volatility in the face of rising interest rates and inflation. Despite the bailout package of the Chinese government to simulate economic activates and stable employment, as well as that of Germany aimed at managing the energy crisis.

Midweek’s trading opened slightly in the upside and it was sustained throughout the session despite oscillating on panic selloffs and buying interest in blue chip stocks and large cap companies shares, a situation that pushed the NGX’s index to an intraday high of 49,258.73bps from its lows of 49,119.51 bps before closing marginally above its opening points at 49,171.70bps.

Market technicals were negative and mixed, with lower volume of shares traded than the previous day in the midst of negative breadth on mixed sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 37% buy position and 63% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 0.61points, just as forces behind the day’s performance was weak as Money Flow Index is looking up at 36.99pts, from the previous day’s 31.03pts, indicating that funds entered the market.

For you to successfully invest and trade in this volatile market, order for Investdata’s video on Buy & Sell Technical Analysis Toolbox to navigate the volatile market profitably, enhance trading decisions and boost your bottom line. Also, to up your game in stock trading and investing, understanding the key to trading price and index action will go a long way to make the difference in your trading results, check out the video materials below.

 Index and Market Caps

At the end of midweek’s session, the composite NGX All-Share Index trading gained 10.25bps, closing at 49,171.70bps, after opening at 49,161.45bps, representing a 0.02% up, just as market capitalization rose by N2.12bn, closing at N26.53tr, from the previous day’s N26.52tr, which also represented a 0.05% value gain.

Attention: If you have not signed up for INVESTDATA’s buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay, because the number of stocks entering their buying range has just decreased to 15 as they build a new bullish base and positive chart patterns to be on our watchlist. These stocks have double the potentials to rally, considering their earnings prospects and the oscillating moves in a recovery market and economy.

To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current oscillating market in the midst of earnings season, portfolio reshuffling, and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy that can stimulate and re-track the economy to the path of growth and development.

This session upturn was driven by demand for shares of BUA Cement, Ardova, Sterling Bank and Jaiz Bank among others, which impacted mildly on Year-To-Date gain, as it increases to 15.11%. Market capitalization gain YTD also rose to N2.93tr YTD, representing a 20.08% rise over the opening level for the year.

 Mixed Sector Indices

Sectorial performance indexes were mixed, as NGX Industrial Goods and Energy closed higher by 1.10% and 0.34% respectively, while the NGX Banking index led the decliners after losing 1.01%, followed Consume goods and Insurance with 0.09% and 0.05% respectively.

Market breadth remained negative, as losers outpaced gainers in the ratio of 20:7; just as transactions in volume and value were down, as investors exchanged 101.13m shares worth N1.19bn, with volume driven by trades in GTCO, Zenith Bank, FBNH, Transcorp and Chams.

Chams and Ardova were the best-performing stocks, gaining 8.01% and 7.4% respectively, closing at N0.27 and N13.75 per share respectively on market forces and earnings expectation. On the flip side, Japaul Gold and Royal Exchange Assurance lost 10% and 9.8% respectively, closing at N0.27 and N0.92 per share, purely on selloffs.

Market Outlook

We expect a mixed sentiment as players digest the impact of rate hike, in the midst of quarter-end window dressing by fund managers. This is just as banking stocks are gaining attention, despite profit taking that makes the sector more attractive for income investors, while portfolio rebalancing continues on bargain hunting in the midst of the worsening sovereign risks. We note also the flow of funds into the fixed income segment on the rate hike by the CBN, as sector rotation persists. Analysts are also focused on the lookout for August CPI and flow of funds amid oil prices oscillation.


Theme   New Actionable & Technical Strategies For Profitable Trades In Changing Market Environment.


  1. Equity Investing in changing volatile Market: Two Sides Of The Coin, Mr Rotimi Olubi. MD ARM Securities Ltd
  2. Arbitrage Trading & Other New Strategies To Hedge Against Stagflation, Mr Abiola Rasaq , CSCS
  3. Mastering Contemporary Technical Tools For Wealth Building In Uncertain Environment, Mr Abdul-Rasheed Momoh, Head Capital Market, Trw Stockbrokers Ltd
  4. Time & Price Analysis For Money Making In Uncertain Market, Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd.

Are you interested in building wealth and improving your trading results through tested and effective investing strategies for the rest of the year and beyond? Smart domestic investors understand the power of money flow and timing in wealth creation through stock trading and investing.

This Q4 masterclass is for you, because it will help you follow exact steps in real time, using the new strategies by following the current volatility and happenings in the market.

Nigeria has entered one of the greatest inflationary periods in the last six months, which is threatening investment and economic activities. And government policies through their economic managers had pushed millions of Nigerians down …. Out of the middle class…out of private retirement, healthcare and decent lives, based on independence and privacy… into a collective nightmare we call financial lockdown.

This is what happens when people are trapped by their own collapsing currency, such that they become deeply indebted. Inflation causes huge distortions in the economy and in the markets, so its critical that you take the necessary steps to ensure you are not left behind.

We have put together this Q4 masterclass to help market players avoid those needless losses and build a profitable portfolio that has high ROI…… Especially in a volatile market, when you don’t know which way up….

Participants will learn the following

  1. How all fixed income market instruments had failed investors in stagflation environment
  2. How arbitrage trading is creating income for discerning market players
  3. How to hedge against inflation and preserve capital in sectors and industry that have the potential to drive profit that will support equity prices
  4. How classical technical analysis had failed many traders in this high volatile market
  5. How to filter market noise and identify the most opportune time to join any trade
  6. Tradeable chart patterns and candlestick formations that signal real money-making opportunities
  7. Five hot stocks that beat inflation and deliver over 30% in a short period of time.
  8. How to buy right on the two sides of equity investing, fundamental vs technical, risk vs profit, buy vs sell and bears vs bulls,

Date: October 1. 2022

Time: 9AM Prompt

Fee: N50,000 per participant

Venue: ZOOM

However, with less than 24 days to Q4 Master class October 1, 2022, you need to make money and avoid losses, boost your trading bottom line. Don’t miss this opportunity.

During this practical session our top industry experts will reveal profitable trade ideas and opportunities in Q4 to consolidate your gains and ride on year end seasonality to maximise returns. That is what you can implement immediately to start tracking the result by yourself and the investdata Research team on your behalf. You definitely want to be among the smart traders and investors in Q4. So, send “YES” or “STOCKS” to 08028164085 and 08179547605.

Ambrose Omordion

CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd




Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605