Market Update for March 17
Trading activities on the Nigerian Exchange started the week on negative note on Monday, as the Composite NGX All-Share index pulled back further, thereby extending the bear transition for a second successive session on a selling sentiment in the midst of an above average traded volume and negative market internals. This was despite the February Consumer Price Index released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing a further decline in inflation to 23.2% from 24.5% recorded in January. This indicates relatively price stability, knowing that the recent rebasing of inflation variables and base year effect supported macroeconomic data made available in recent days.
This should ordinarily be a plus for the equity market and the economy at large because, if this trend continues in March and April before CBN policy meeting in May, there is the high probability of a rate cut. These will support the changing economic fundamentals in the second half of 2025.
These recent pullbacks are creating new entry opportunities for discerning investors and smart traders to position in value stocks ahead of more audited corporate earnings inflow and end of the quarter window dressing by fund managers and others market operators. Also, more companies are notifying the market of their board meetings to approve the audited financial statement for 2024 and declare dividend, a situation expected to impact the market positively if these numbers beat expectation in dividend payout and performance.
The ongoing volatility on the back of the global trade warfare will definitely make some economies across the globe and mar some others. It is therefore time for economic managers and government to rethink their fiscal and monetary policies if they are to drive and sustain growth in their domain, even as the recent selloffs are creating opportunities to buy in value and rebalance portfolios in the mature markets and in our market today.
Notwithstanding the selloffs and corrections, bargain hunting is ongoing in stocks that had suffered losses to attract dividend income investors as they position ahead of corporate action announcements. Importantly, at this period dividend growth and yields remain very important to players, when there is over-subscription in TB auction and rates inched up across all tenor at the midweek. It is well known that different phases of the market comes with their own opportunities and benefits, especially with reactions to earnings as market players are digesting corporate numbers and rate direction of the apex bank after the last policy meeting.
The decline phase of the NGX provides opportunities for market players to target dividend paying companies as pullbacks will impact dividend yields positively and provide room for higher upside that support capital gain. This is because the market has entered oversold region that signal reversal in the midst of selling sentiments for some sectors, consolidation moves in some industries and expectations of positive corporate numbers from some others, based on their quarterly and full year unaudited performance, coupled with their dividend payouts history.
Technically, money flow and other momentum tools are down, revealing weakness that present opportunities to buying low and selling high in the midst ongoing volatility and selling sentiment. The index inched lower to signal wait and see, thereby creating the perfect setup for high probability of continuation to catch dividend season repositioning at the right price. Also, as the index still trades below the T-line and heading to breakdown the two moving averages of 50-EMA and 50-SMA, this indicates relatively weakness in the face of changing market fundamentals and technicals on the NGX and the economy.
Investors sentiment as revealed by candlestick formation and momentum indicators, shows that ADX is down to read 25.05points, while RSI and Money Flow Index were down at 43.75 and 16.13 points against the previous session’s 45.57and 16.39points respectively. Consequently, market players should watch this current trend and trade wisely in the face of funds are leaving the market on a mixed sentiment in some sectors and profit taking in others on a daily time frame. Also, trading volume pattern continued to oscillates, suggesting smart money are neither exiting position or watching amid players revaluing the market and short-term opportunities, looking at economic events in the face of policy direction of the government that look inconsistent and global economic outlook in the face of trade war tension.
To navigate the rest of Q1 and beyond profitably, it is important to run with economic events, fundamental and technical analysis, join investdata live sessions at noon every Monday, Wednesday and Friday’s trading session “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent pullbacks. Despite the oscillating volume of transaction witnessed in recent time, it is time to position in undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.
Oil prices on Monday inched up to continue its oscillation, as it trades at $73.64 per barrel in the midst of peace talk and ceasefire in Ukraine ahead Trump meeting with Putin. Even as expected growth in China economy to boost demand for oil, as trade war uncertainty continue to drive sentiment. The geopolitical tension across many economies remains a concern to the global economy and energy consumption in 2025. This trend may likely continue, while the up and down movement continues to drive volatility, even as the raging war between Ukraine and Russia continues to influence global oil supply and demand.
Monday’s trading opened in the downside and was sustained throughout the session, despite oscillating on bargain hunting but selloffs across the major sectors of the market pushed the NGX’s index to an intra-day low of 105, 725.90bps from its highs of 105,967.10bps, before closing below its opening level at 105,799.20bps.
Market technicals were negative and mixed with lower volume when compared to the previous session in the midst of breadth favoring the bears on a selling sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 30% buy position and 70% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 1.00points, just as impetus behind the day’s performance was weak as Money Flow Index inched lower to read 16.13pts, from the previous day’s 16.39pts, indicating that funds left the market.
To successfully invest and trade in this volatile market for the rest of the year, order for Investdata’s video on Buy & Sell Technical Analysis Toolbox to navigate the volatile market profitably, enhance trading decisions and boost your bottom line. Also, to up your game in stock trading and investing, understanding the key to trading price and index action will go a long way to make the difference in your trading results, check out the video materials on our site and take action.
Index and Market Caps
The NGX All-Share Index at the end of Monday shed 155.96 basis points, closing at 105,799.20bps from 105,955.13bps, representing a 0.15% drop, while market capitalization fell slightly by N7.56bn, at N66.34tr from the previous day’s N66.35tr, representing a 0.01% value loss, due to the listing sterlingNG 16.67 billion ordinary shares at N4.50.
Attention: If you have not signed up for INVESTDATA’s buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay, because the number of stocks entering their oversold range has increased as market correction and volatility call for intelligent trading and positive chart patterns to be on our watchlist. These stocks have potentials to retrace, considering their earnings prospects and the oscillating moves in an upmarket and weak economy.
To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current oscillating market in the midst of earnings season, portfolio reshuffling, and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy that can stimulate and re-track the economy to the path of growth and development.
Meanwhile, Monday’s downturn was driven by selloffs and profit taking in the shares of Onado, International Brew, GTCO, UBA, Zenith Bank, Accesscorp, Ucap and Fidelity Bank, among others. This impacted negatively on Year-To-Date gain that inched lower to 2.79%, while Market capitalization gain stood at N6.20tr, representing 5.70% increase over its opening level for the year.
Bearish Sector Indices
Sectoral performance indexes were down as except for NGX industrial goods that finished flat, while the NGX Insurance led the decliners after losing 1.79%, followed by Consumer goods, Banking and Energy with 0.38%, 0.20% and 0.18% respectively.
Market breadth was negative as losers outnumbered gainers in the ratio of 34:18, while activities in volume and value were down after investors exchanged 477.51m shares worth N7.05bn. Volume was driven by trades in Jaiz Bank, Zenith Bank, Sovereign Trust Insurance, Prestige Assurance and Fidelity Bank.
Academy Press and Neimeth Pharm were the best performing stocks, gaining 9.92% and 8.43% respectively, closing at N2.88 and N2.70 per share respectively on the back of sentiment and market forces. On the flip side, Etranszact and Sunu Assurance lost 10% and 9.92%, closing at N5.85 and N4.63per share, purely on profit taking and selloffs.
Market Outlook
We expect mixed sentiments to continue as market players digest CPI figure of 23.2% in the midst of profit taking, portfolio reshuffling, bargain hunting and digesting of corporate action/ Q1 earnings forecast, as more earnings are expected to hit the market with dividend announcement. Also, sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing continued in the market with investors taking advantage of price correction to buy into value.
This is amid the volatility and pullbacks that add more strength to upside potential. Consequently, investors should take advantage of price correction. Also looking at the trends and events across the globe and domestically.
Q2 2025 Investdata Master Class
Theme: Post-Earnings Season Strategies For Winning Edge In Q2 Market Oscillation
Sub-Topics
- Risk-Reward Managing Tools & Proven Patterns For Profitable Trading On The NGX by Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, ED Operations at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd
- Game-Changing Strategies For Identifying Overvalued & Undervalued Stocks In Any Market Cycle For Higher Returns, by Mr Kebira Jimoh Aruna, MD/CEO GlobalView Capital Ltd
- NGX Sector Rotation With Earnings Power & Technical Tools For Profitable Investing,by Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd
- Current Opportunities In Nigeria’s Mortgage Landscape, by Mr Tope Ojo, Managing Partner, Tope & Tunde Estate Surveyors & Valuers
It is obvious that volatility on the NGX is not ending soon. So, how would you describe the recent market action? “Topping,” “Pullbacks,”or“Volatility.”
What is important is how and what you should be doing to build your wealth in view of these changing market fundamentals and otherwise. The strange trends and patterns emerging on the exchange are unusual for fundamentalist and dividend income investors, because the inflow of impressive corporate earnings and dividend announcements is not impacting yields positively, as expected in the new phase of the equities market.
It is an anomaly we have only seen once before in this decade. The last time this pattern played out was in late 2007 and early 2008, and it helped to create some of the biggest winners in stocks market history. In the NGX today, intelligent investors and smart traders are combining fundamental and technical analyses to beat market oscillation and manipulation in the various cycles and seasons. That is why we are excited to share something New and Unique in this upcoming Q2 Master Class.
Takeaways from this Q2 Master Class
- Discover how successful traders and investors wake up Knowing how the market and trades are likely to move
- Learn how technical traders catch market turns and ride the waves in days or weeks
- How following Trends and Patterns can boost your trading returns
- Simple and effective short-term trading strategiesyou can implement in just a few minutes daily
- How to quickly identify the best trades and investing opportunities to win
- The power of sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing for boosting your portfolio bottom line.
- What stands you out as a pro as you start thinking and trading with confidence
- 5 Stocks that will outperform inflation by doubling CPI rate in Q2, 2025
Don’t miss this class, if you have any exposure to the stock market, either directly or indirectly via managed funds of any kind……
Date: March 29, 2025
Time: 9am
Fee: N100,000
Venue: Zoom
If you want to reset your profit by taking advantage of opportunities in financial market and assets repricing in Q2 and beyond, send Yes to 08028164085, 08179547605 now.
Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605
