New data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday showed that the country recorded a steady economic recovery with full-year growth of 3.4% in 2021, after rising by 3.98% in the final quarter of the year, its fifth successive quarterly growth since the country emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic induced recession.
The full-year growth was a significant improvement over the 1.92% contraction in 2020, and is the best in seven years since 2014, when the Nigerian economy recorded 6.22% jump, before dropping to 2.79% in the 2015.
Recall that in the aftermath of the pandemic and the ensuing lockdown, the economic contracted by -6.10% and -3.62% in Q2 and Q3 of 2020.
According to the NBS report, the 2021Q4 growth was faster than the 0.11% limp recorded in the corresponding period of 2020, but lower than 4.03% recorded in Q3 2021 by 0.05% points.
Quarter on quarter, the report noted that real GDP at 9.63% in Q4 2021, compared to Q3 2021, “reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter.”
Aggregate GDP for the period stood at N49.276tr in nominal terms, which was better when compared to the N43.564tr, reported in the fourth quarter of 2020, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.11%. Real GDP, however stood at N20.33tr in Q4 2021
“The nominal GDP growth rate in Q4 2021 was higher relative to 10.07% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 but lower compared to 15.41% growth recorded in the preceding quarter. 2021 annual nominal growth stood at 13.92%,” the report noted.
A breakdown of the figure showed that real growth of the oil sector was –8.06% (year-on-year) in Q4 2021 indicating an increase by 11.71% points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth increased by 2.68% points when compared to Q3 2021 which was –10.73%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -24.06% in Q4 2021. Annual growth stood at -8.30%, better than the -8.89% recorded in 2020. The Oil sector contributed 5.19% to total real GDP in Q4 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87% and 7.49% respectively. Nevertheless, the sector contributed 7.24% to real GDP in 2021. A further breakdown showed that the nation recorded 1.5m barrels per day of crude in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.57mbpd in the preceding quarter.
The non-oil sector grew by 4.73% in real terms Q4 2021, higher by 3.05% point tthe rate recorded same quarter of 2020 and 0.71% point lower than the third quarter of 2021. This sector was driven in fourth quarter 2021 mainly by Agriculture (crop production); trade; Information and Communication (Telecommunication); and Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.81% to the nation’s GDP in fourth quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 which was 94.13% and higher than the third quarter of 2021 recorded as 92.51%. The annual contribution in 2021 was 92.76%.
On sectoral basis, the manufacturing sector contributed the highest at 28.99%, followed by agriculture with 26.84%, while transport industry grew the highest with 63.05% YoY growth.
