Maria Agustina Patti

Crude oil futures rebounded as signs of progress in U.S.–China trade relations helped improve market sentiment. Beijing’s announcement that it is evaluating a proposal for talks with Washington raised hopes of de-escalation in the prolonged tariff confrontation. Given the potential impact of trade tension on global economic activity and energy demand, the prospect of reduced tensions supported a shift in outlook for crude. Geopolitical developments added to the momentum. U.S. President Trump’s renewed threat of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers heightened concerns over supply constraints. This reinforced upward pressure on prices.

However, the market remains cautious ahead of key decisions from the OPEC group. Some OPEC+ members are advocating for another round of output increases, while Saudi Arabia could be unwilling to support prices. Increased supply from the group could add more pressure on oil prices, which have been declining since the beginning of the year. Traders could also monitor any new economic data release in the US and China for clues on demand levels.

Patti is Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness