Expect Mixed Trend On Interim Dividends, Bargain Hunting, Positioning For Full-Year Financials

Market Update for the Week Ended November 11 and Outlook for Nov 14-18

The second trading week of November closed lower on the Nigerian Exchange, halting the previous week’s gain on a high traded volume signaling increasing activities in some sectors and stocks that indicate that smart money is underway, having based on their reading of the quarterly earnings of listed companies which beat expectations. This is because many of the stocks are trading near their 52-week low to support the hope for higher dividend yields ahead of the 2022-year end and corporate action in 2023.

At times in stock trading and investing, players are overwhelmed by happenings or volatility, depending on the market direction. Now that seasonality is around the corner in the second half of Q4, are you prepared to trade or invest like a professional and take advantage of the season, looking at news, data, politics and other factors.  Here, the most important thing is to hold onto the key price structure or action to understand the flow and psychology of market player’s demand and supply pattern.

The simple tactic to reduce the overwhelming situation at any time is to watch the chart which is the price action, proper market timing that helps traders to catch tops and lows with T line and momentum strength as well as identifying proper breakouts with strong volume and the time is occurring on resistance or support levels.

When analyzing stocks for high profitability level or returns, make sure you equally look at the sector performance to see that majority of the stocks in the industry or sector are pointing in the same direction as the picks you want to buy. Even the general market direction at times, because as you know, there is a very strong correlation between the stock market individual stocks.  Many failed trades could be avoided by following these two basic principle

To navigate this current market situation profitably using fundamental and technical analyses to run, join investdata live sessions at noon every trading day “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent range market. Despite the mixed sentiment witnessed, it is time to go shopping for undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.”

Oil price sustained its oscillation as it trades at $95.42, just as the growing anti-OPEC movement is disasterous for oil market, in the midst of fear of recession and supply tighten due to Russia Ukraine war. Also, weak demand as stronger dollar influence purchasing power in the face of the global hawkish monetary policy by central banks, just as China COVID-19 lockdown come to an end. The up and down movement of oil price also continues to drive volatility as rising interest rates and inflation. The bailout package of the Chinese government to simulate economic activates and stable employment as a positive fore, as well as that of Europe aimed at managing the energy crisis.

Movement Of NGXASI

It was a week of mixed trends and sentiments, as the NGX resisted further decline, despite closing lower with four trading sessions of up market and one day down market after major sectors and individual stocks suffered losses during the period. Particularly, the banking index closed in the green on position taking ahead dividend expectation and capital gain, amid stronger corporate earnings report and macroeconomic reports expectation.

Trading for the week opened on a positive note, extending the previous session’s gain by 0.07%. This was short-lived on Tuesday with sharp decline 1.43%, but rebound at midweek with the gain of 0.07% on renewed buying interest that was sustained on Thursday and Friday with 0.74% and 0.04% respectively to bring the week’s total loss to 0,68%, compared to the previous week’s 0.81% gain.

All in all, the key performance NGX All-Share Index shed 300.43 basis points, closing at 43,968.75bps, compared to the week’s 44,269.18ps opening level, after touching an intra-week low of 43,393.20bps and a high of 44,293.10bps. Market capitalisation also fell by N163bn, representing a 0.68% value loss during the week to closed at N23.95tr, from the previous week’s N24.11tr,

Advancers’ table for the period was dominated by low and medium priced stocks, amid buying sentiment in blue chip companies, despite the volatility and portfolio repositioning. Also notable is the fact that investors are taking advantage of the low prices to buy into value and high dividend yield companies.

Market metrics indicate negative breadth as losers outnumbered gainers in the ratio of 36:27 on a mixed sentiment as reveal by investdata sentiment report showing 64% ‘buy’ volume and 36% sell position. Money Flow Index looking flat to 10.43bps, from the previous week’s 10.67 points, an indication that funds did not leave the market on a weekly chart despite closing lower to reflect position taking in some sectors and individual stocks.

The NGX index’s action may likely continue its oscillation movement as market players digest the recent earnings and position on interim dividend corporate action dates, while traded volume for the week remained relatively high irrespective of the low liquidity and expected institutional players while the mixed trend continued on the daily time frame to trade flat on the T line on a buying sentiment and improving momentum. We note also that the index is trading below the ‘T’ line and on 50-day moving average on a weekly time frame to signal possibility of sustained rebound, as corporate actions and macroeconomic data can support uptrend.

 Bearish Sectoral Indices

Sectorial performance indexes for the week were down, save for the NGX Banking that closed slightly higher by 0.17%, while the NGX Insurance led the decliners after losing 2.25%, followed by consumer goods, Energy and Industrial goods with 1.95%, 0.74% and 0.29% respectively.

Transactions in volume and value were down, as investors exchanged 1.10bn shares worth N11.71bn, compared to the previous week’s 1.41bn units valued at N15.51bn, with volume driven by Financial Services, conglomerates and Energy. Specifically, the week’s volume was driven by trades in Accesscorp, Sterling Bank, Transcorp, ZenithBank and GTCO.

Unity Bank and Royal Exchange Assurance were the best-performing stocks during the week, gaining 35.71% and 22.22% respectively, closing at N0.57 and N0.88 per share on market forces and sentiment. On the flip side, Prestige Assurance and Learn Africa lost 15.22% and 10.71% respectively, at N0.39 and N1.50 per share, purely on selloffs.

 Outlook for the week

We expect a mixed trend on interim dividend qualification dates and bargain hunting as players continue to digest and position for full year financials, while all eyes are on macroeconomic reports. Also, investors are repositioning their portfolios on the strength of Q3 earnings.

Invest 2023 Traders & Investors’ Summit

Theme: Preparing For Financial Market Reset In 2023 & Beyond

Sub-Topics

1, Budget 2023, Economic Headwinds & The Stock Market: Are Market Players Prepared? Mr Olatunde Amolegbe, CEO, Arthur Steven Asset Management Ltd & Immediate Past President of CIS

  1. Comprehensive & Complete Wealth Building Actionable Strategies for 2023 Mr Oladipo Ajayi Head of Fixed Income at Chapel Hill Denham
  2. 2023 Stock Market Outlook And Identifying Great Value Stocks For Santa Claus & Post-Election Rally Alhaji Garba Kurfi MD/CEO APT Securities & Funds Ltd)
  3. The Power of Technical Tools In Today’s Volatile Market Mr Rotimi Olubi. MD ARM Securities Ltd
  4. Building Recession-Resistant Portfolios In A Financial Reset Mr Muktar Mohammed, MD Muktar Finance Ltd
  5. The Role of Commodity Trading In Wealth Creation, Agricultural Development
  6. Fixed Income Market Slice & Dice In A Changing Interest Rates, Inflationary Environment Mr Teriba Adeboye, MD/CEO, Qualinvest Capital ltd

8, Four Steps To Simplify Your Day Trading & Understanding the power of Breakout Trades Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, Head Capital Market at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd

9, 10 Golden Stocks for 2023,  Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd.
Investdata Consulting Ltd will hold the 11th edition of its annual Investment conference tagged Invest 2023 Traders & Investors Summit, which has over the years remained a game changer for market players. This edition is aimed at helping stakeholders prepare for the financial market reset expected to happen next year by identifying opportunities and bringing tradable ideas for profitable investment as we enter election year. This one-day event is yet “Another wealth transfers for the prepared as the bull is underway after this correction “

Are you prepare to move cash to profitable assets ahead of year-end and the 2023 general elections, Invest 2023 is a don’t miss summit that is capable of completely changing your view about wealth creation in a disconnect system where the economy and stock market are headed and when you should fully plunge in or hold cash. Join equity market experts and other experienced professionals as they discuss a “Big Picture Perspective” of where the stock market and other investment windows are today, and what signs to watch for in the coming months.  Don’t miss this summit.

This annual summit offers you, whether an investor, or trader an insight, perspective and expectation in the new year. This edition is exceptional, given the increasing headwinds across the globe and locally, ranging from the aggressive rate hikes, soaring inflation, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties surround the 2023 general election like others before it. There will also analyses on the status of different investment windows and opportunities ranging from the economy, equity, bond, commodity markets, using fundamental and technical tools.

Looking at history, there is no doubt that a correction or rebound is on the cards at some stage over the coming months. However, this big questions on everybody’s lips include when this will occur and whether it will end this bull-run or market recovery. Whatever happens, what is the best way to Prepare rather than trying to Predict? This and more, are what Invest 2023 Summit will address.

What to expect at this Summit?
A. How to take advantage of the correction for huge profit
B. Strategies to stay in profit, overcome market correction/pullbacks
C. How to hedge against inflation and preserve your portfolio
D. Understanding the power of liquidity and circular flow of funds in financial markets
E. Risk/return from Bonds to stocks right now.
F. Commodity trading as another  investment window to boost return

  1. The exact sectors and tickers you should be looking at this volatile market
  2. Market events and others you can use to trade in any market situatio

Benefits of attending

  1. 10 Golden Stocks for 2023
    ii. Admission to Investdata Buy & Sell WhatsApp Platform
    iii. Among others

“Invest 2023 – Connects you to new trade opportunities and ideas to enhance your trading returns

Don’t miss this summit, if you have any exposure to the stock market, either directly or indirectly via managed funds of any kind……

Date: December 3, 2023

Time: 9am

Fee: N30,000

Venue: Zoom

If you want to reset your profit by taking advantage of opportunities in financial market and assets repricing in 2023? Send Yes to 08028164085, 08179547605 now.

Ambrose Omordion

CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd

info@investdata.com.ng

ambrose.o@investdataonline.com

ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com

Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605

As a trader and investor looking to pull money out of the market regularly, the only thing you are really looking for is the price of the investment you bought or sold-short to move in your favor. So, common sense tells us that “Only Price Pays,” not news, not how much we love a stock or commodity. If the price does not move, you do not make any money, period.

If price movement is what pays us, then it’s only logical that we focus mainly on the price. Most indicators are based off of price, so they lag the last traded price for an investment. Some indicators, like the 50-day moving average, which many traders use, are actually lagging that investment by 50 days.

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