Mixed Sentiments Ahead On Cautious Trading, As Investors Awaits MPC Meeting Outcome

Market Update For November 21

Equity prices on the Nigerian Exchange closed higher on Monday, to start the week on a positive note in the midst of ongoing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and improved momentum amid increased buying interest across the major sectors of the market, despite the low traded volume. Also, the benchmark NGX All-Share index extended its positive momentum and buying sentiments, as relative strength among the blue chip companies and growth stocks waxed stronger.

Also, all eyes are on the outcome of the MPC meeting, particularly whether there will be a further upward adjustment in the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate, as investors continue to reposition their portfolios on the strength of the recent corporate earnings. Investors are viewing all of these against the backdrop of the rampaging inflation as they hedge against the rising inflation in some stocks with high dividend yields and strong earnings to support higher payout as financial year end of many companies draw closer.

The prevailing low traded volume in the face of positive market breadth signals the activities of speculators and bargain hunters as institutional investors are still standing on the fence with cash waiting for the last MPC meeting outcome. They taking position in banking stocks, taking advantage of their undervalued states of these banks and the renewed buying interest in consumer goods, due to corporate actions ahead.  The strong market on Monday, despite the price adjustment of Nestle and Total Energies for interim dividends of N25 and N4 respectively, indicates then imminent price markup by smart money.

Also noteworthy is the fact that market players are reassessing the impact of the CBN’s currency redesigning in its bid to check counterfeiting and control money in circulation, as all eyes are on Q3 GDP that would show how the economy had faired with 400 basis points rate hike in the last six months. This macroeconomic data and outcome of the ongoing MPC meeting are expected to shape market direction in the midst of the better-than-expected corporate earnings and low prices of stocks that created real opportunities for fresh entrance ahead of year-end seasonality.

The recent golden cross of the T line and 20-day moving average  in the market and positive sentiment, as majority of the sectors indexes  retraced up at the oversold state of the market is offering entry opportunities for discerning investors in the face of improving momentum. We also note the fact that many players, including the institutional investors are still holding cash to confirm market direction, especially given the anticipated   financial market reset in 2023, and beyond expected to create wealth for discerning investors.

Technically, Monday’s trading metrics and some technical indicators revealed a new uptrend as NGX index trade above T-line and 20-day moving average, following  through as expected to  confirm the latest rebound as the market opens this morning, just as companies’ actual numbers continue to guide investors’ decision on portfolio alignments, amid increasing transaction volume that has become noticeable in some sectors and stocks, ahead of year-end seasonality and others events that are likely to give the market direction. Most stocks have touching their 52-week lows and some tending towards their year-to-date low, creating more entry opportunities for discerning investors.

To navigate the rest of the year profitably using fundamental and technical analysis to run, join investdata live sessions at noon every trading day “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent range market. Despite the low volume of transaction witnessed, it is time to go shopping for undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.”

Oil price continued its oscillation, pulling back below $90 to trade at $87.47, in the midst of Covid 19 cases in China, geopolitical tension and fear of recession as a result of high interest rate and inflation across the globe. Also supply tighten due to the Russia-Ukraine war that has been lingering.  The up and down movement of oil price also continues to drive volatility. Despite the bailout package of the Chinese government to simulate economic activates and stabilize employment, as well as that of Germany aimed at managing the energy crisis.

Monday’s trading opened in the upside and it was sustained throughout the session, despite oscillating on profit taking and buying interest in banking, consumer goods and insurance stocks, a situation that pushed the NGX’s index to an intraday high of 44,701.84bps from its lows of 44,492.73bps before closing above its opening level at 44,701.84bps.

Market technicals were strong and positive, with higher volume of trade than the previous session in the midst of breadth favoring the bulls on a buying pressure as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 100% buy position and 0% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 0.95 points, just as energy behind the day’s performance was relatively strong as Money Flow Index  looked  up at 61.68pts, from the previous day’s 55.43pts, indicating that funds entered the market.

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Index and Market Caps

At the end of Monday’s session, the benchmark NGX All-Share Index gained 209.11bps, closing at 44,701.84 basis points, after opening at 44,492.73bps, representing a 0.47% growth, just as market capitalization rose by N113.90bn, closing at N24.33tr from the previous day’s N24.23tr, which also represented a 0.47% value gain.

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The day’s upturn was driven by position taking in Lafarge Africa, GTCO, Zenith Bank, Ecobank Transnational Incorporation, UBA, Cornerstone, Accesscorp, MRS Oil, AIICO and UPDC, among others, which impacted mildly on Year-To-Date gain, increasing to 3.11%. Market capitalization gain YTD stood at N1.2tr, representing a 8.30% rise over the opening level for the year.

Bullish Sector Indices

Sectorial performance indexes were in green, except for the NGX Industrial goods that closed lower by 0.03%, while the NGX Consumer goods led the advancers after gaining 2.44% followed by Banking, Insurance and Energy with 1.25%, 0.18% and 0.15% respectively.

Market breadth was positive, as gainers outnumbered losers in the ratio of 26:6; just as transactions in volume and value were mixed as players exchanged just 159.56m shares worth N1.95bn. Volume was driven by trades in Transcorp, Aiico, Zenith Bank, FBNH and UBN.

Nigerian Breweries and NEM Insurance were the best performing stocks after gaining 9.94% and 9.87%, closing at N45.35 and N4.12per share respectively on the impact of their corporate actions and market forces. On the flip side, Japaul Gold and Aiico Insurance lost 7.14% and 5.36%, closing at N0.26 and N0.53per share, purely on profit taking and selloffs.

Market Outlook

We expect mixed sentiments on cautious trading as player’s awaits MPC meeting outcome on Tuesday. Amidst bargain hunting, repositioning of portfolios and election uncertainty, as investors are taking advantage of the low prices ahead of year end seasonality.

Invest 2023 Traders & Investors’ Summit

Theme: Preparing For Financial Market Reset In 2023 & Beyond


1, Budget 2023, Economic Headwinds & The Stock Market: Are Market Players Prepared? Mr Olatunde Amolegbe, CEO, Arthur Steven Asset Management Ltd & Immediate Past President of CIS

  1. Comprehensive & Complete Wealth Building Actionable Strategies for 2023 Mr Oladipo Ajayi Head of Fixed Income at Chapel Hill Denham
  2. 2023 Stock Market Outlook And Identifying Great Value Stocks For Santa Claus & Post-Election Rally Alhaji Garba Kurfi MD/CEO APT Securities & Funds Ltd)
  3. The Power of Technical Tools In Today’s Volatile Market Mr Rotimi Olubi. MD ARM Securities Ltd
  4. Building Recession-Resistant Portfolios In A Financial Reset Mr Muktar Mohammed, MD Muktar Finance Ltd
  5. The Role of Commodity Trading In Wealth Creation, Agricultural Development
  6. Fixed Income Market Slice & Dice In A Changing Interest Rates, Inflationary Environment Mr Teriba Adeboye, MD/CEO, Qualinvest Capital ltd

8, Four Steps To Simplify Your Day Trading & Understanding the power of Breakout Trades Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, Head Capital Market at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd

9, 10 Golden Stocks for 2023,  Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd.
Investdata Consulting Ltd will hold the 11th edition of its annual Investment conference tagged Invest 2023 Traders & Investors Summit, which has over the years remained a game changer for market players. This edition is aimed at helping stakeholders prepare for the financial market reset expected to happen next year by identifying opportunities and bringing tradable ideas for profitable investment as we enter election year. This one-day event is yet “Another wealth transfers for the prepared as the bull is underway after this correction “

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This annual summit offers you, whether an investor, or trader an insight, perspective and expectation in the new year. This edition is exceptional, given the increasing headwinds across the globe and locally, ranging from the aggressive rate hikes, soaring inflation, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties surround the 2023 general election like others before it. There will also analyses on the status of different investment windows and opportunities ranging from the economy, equity, bond, commodity markets, using fundamental and technical tools.

Looking at history, there is no doubt that a correction or rebound is on the cards at some stage over the coming months. However, this big questions on everybody’s lips include when this will occur and whether it will end this bull-run or market recovery. Whatever happens, what is the best way to Prepare rather than trying to Predict? This and more, are what Invest 2023 Summit will address.

What to expect at this Summit?
A. How to take advantage of the correction for huge profit
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E. Risk/return from Bonds to stocks right now.
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Ambrose Omordion

CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd




Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605

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