Market Update for November 12
Tuesday’s was a negative session on the Nigerian Exchange as profit taking resurfaced, hitting medium and high cap stocks, and pulling down the benchmark NGX All-Share index. This halted the bullish momentum that follows three consecutive sessions of recovery in the midst of of a low traded volume and negative market breadth, even as breadth contraction signals selling sentiment in Nestle and some medium cap stocks.
High volatility and portfolio rebalancing continued on the strength of Q3 numbers and insiders’ dealings as announced by ABC Transport, Ellah Lakes, Aradel Holdings, Zenith Bank, Ucap and others on the NGX, just as UBA, Neimeth Pharma and Tantalizers Plc notified the exchange of board changes during the session.
The market pulled back to distribution phase as analysts look out for the October consumer price index with the prevailing weak macroeconomic data that had already revealed economic contraction, being the impact of a mismatch of economic reform policies fashioned by the fiscal and monetary authorities so far.
Despite the negative outing at the NGX on Tuesday the exchange still presents buy opportunities for market players that understand the importance of buying low and selling high in any market condition. This is particularly true now that many stocks on the NGX are undervalued with high upside potentials, while investors carryout sector rotation on the strength of quarterly earnings reports that reveal the states of various companies on the NGX. Already, many companies posted stronger Q3 numbers that show inherent value with high possibility of higher payout at the end of the current financial year as portfolio reshuffling continue in the midst of positioning for year-end seasonality and others.
The NGX index has formed a top chart pattern that signals reversal and retracement which need of confirmation as trading opens at midweek. This retracement from strong resistance level of 97,548.03 basis points and 97,666.35bps, after forming a topping-tail and hammer candle in an uptrend on Monday. This created the perfect setup for high probability of correction to catch end of year repositioning. Also, the index trading slightly below the T-line and the two moving averages of 50-EMA and 50-SMA, this indicate relatively weak momentum and somewhat in the midst of changing market fundamentals and technicals on the NGX and the larger economy.
Technically, the NGX is on an uptrend in the midst of profit taking and buying interests, as transaction volume slowed down to signal the absence of smart money in the market. Candlestick formation and momentum indicators reveal a somewhat weakness and strength in the market. The ADX is looking up at 23.33 points, while RSI and Money Flow Index were down to read 43.98 and 21.95 points against the previous session’s 45.20 and 25.99 points respectively. Consequently, market players should watch this current trend and trade wisely in the face of funds leaving the market on a mixed sentiment in some sectors and profit taking in others. Also, trading volume pattern continued to oscillates, suggesting position taking and selloffs in the market amid players studying the corporate earnings and policy direction of the government that look confused.
To navigate the rest of this quarter and beyond profitably, running with fundamental and technical analysis, join investdata live sessions at noon every Monday, Wednesday and Friday trading day “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent range market. Despite the oscillating volume of transaction witnessed in recent time, it is time to go shopping for undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.
Oil prices on Tuesday pulled back and continued oscillating, trading at $71.86 per barrel in the midst of weak china demand and fear of policy uncertainty of Trump. As OPEC remain indifferent on production policy in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflict in the Middle East. As demand outlook remained mixed in the midst of rate cuts by the major central banks of the world and OPEC unclear direction on output increase ahead of 2025. The rising geopolitical uncertainties across many economies remains a threat to the global economy and energy consumption. This trend may likely continue for the rest of 2024, while the up and down movement continues to drive volatility, even as the raging war between Ukraine and Russia continues to influence global oil supply and demand.
Tuesday’s trading opened flat before pulling back which was sustained throughout the session, despite oscillating on selloffs in high and medium cap stocks, while buying interest in others in the market. This situation pushed the NGX’s index to an intra-day low of 97,215.17bps from its highs of 97,378.62bps, before closing below its opening level at 97,260.75bps.
Market technicals were negative and mixed with higher volume when compared to the previous session in the midst of breadth favouring the bears on a selling sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 28% buy position and 72% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 0.78 points, just as impetus behind the day’s performance was weak as Money Flow Index inched down to read 21.95pts, from the previous day’s 25.99pts, indicating that funds left the market.
To successfully invest and trade in this volatile market for the rest of the year, order for Investdata’s video on Buy & Sell Technical Analysis Toolbox to navigate the volatile market profitably, enhance trading decisions and boost your bottom line. Also, to up your game in stock trading and investing, understanding the key to trading price and index action will go a long way to make the difference in your trading results, check out the video materials above and take action.
Index and Market Caps
The NGX All-Share Index shed 113.19 basis points on Tuesday, closing at 97,260.75bps, after opening at 97,374.25bps, representing a 0.12% drop. Market capitalization fell by N63.43bn, closing at N58.94tr from the previous day’s N59.00tr, representing a 0.12% value loss.
Attention: If you have not signed up for INVESTDATA’s buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay, because the number of stocks entering their oversold range has increased as market correction and volatility call for intelligent trading and positive chart patterns to be on our watchlist. These stocks have potentials to retrace, considering their earnings prospects and the oscillating moves in an upmarket and weak economy.
To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current oscillating market in the midst of earnings season, portfolio reshuffling, and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy that can stimulate and re-track the economy to the path of growth and development.
The downturn was driven by profit taking and selloffs in the shares of Nestle, Oando, Ucap, UACN, FCMB, Dangote Sugar and SterlingNG, among others. This impacted mildly on Year-To-Date gain as it inched down to 30.07%, while Market capitalization gain stood at N14.67tr, representing 44.03% growth over its opening level for the year.
Bullish Sector Indices
Sectoral performance indexes were green, save for NGX consumer goods index that closed lower by 0.86%, while the NGX Banking led the advancers after gaining 0.49%, followed by Insurance and Energy with 0.08% and 0.02% respectively. While NGX Industrial index finished flat.
Market breadth was negative, as losers outnumbered gainers in the ratio of 28:22, while transactions in volume and value were up after investors exchanged 350.38m shares worth N9.26bn. Volume was driven by trades in Ucap, Accesscorp, UBA, Oando and GTCO.
Enuisell and JohnHolt were the best performing stocks, gaining 9.98% and 9.83%, closing at N9.92 and N5.81 per share respectively on the back of sentiment and market forces respectively. On the flip side, VFD Group and Royal Exchange lost 10% and 9.68% respectively, closing at N40.50 and N0.56per share, purely on profit taking and selloffs.
Market Outlook
We expect mixed sentiments to continue on bargain hunting, profit taking and low valuation ahead of position taking by smart money for year-end. Also, sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing continued in the market with investors taking advantage of pullbacks and correction to buy into value.
This is amid the volatility and pullbacks that add more strength to upside potential. Consequently, investors should take advantage of price correction. Also looking at the trends and events across the globe and domestically.
Take Action
Invest 2025 Traders & Investors Summit
Theme: Profit From 2025 Once A Decade Investing Opportunities & Patterns
Sub-Topics
- Impact of 2025 National Budget & Changing Government Policies On Investment Windows, by Mr Peter Sunday Adebola, Managing Director/CEO Edgefield Capital Management Ltd
- Opportunities In Fixed Income Market & Inflation Outlook In 2025, by Mr Teriba Adeboye, MD/CEO, Qualinvest Capital ltd
- Maximize 2025 The “Year Ending In 5” Effect: Uncover 10 Golden Stocks For Profitably Investing, by Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd
- Real Estate Investment Opportunities in 2025 Amidst Fiscal Policy Reforms Of The Government, Mr Tope Ojo, Managing Partner,Tope & Tunde Estate Surveyors & Valuers
- How To Navigate The Alternative Markets To Grow Your Portfolio in 2025, by AlhajiGarba Kurfi, MD/CEO APT Securities & Funds Ltd
- Building All-Weather Portfolio To Stay Ahead Of NGX IN 2025 & Beyond, by Mr Abiola Rasaq, Former Head, Investor Relations & Portfolio Investments United Bank For Africa Plc
- Profitably Chart Patterns & Timing To Trade “Year Ending In 5” Effect On NGX In 2025, by Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, ED Operations at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd
- The Place Of Corporate Earnings In Trading & Investing For Retirement, by Mr Kebira Jimoh Aruna, MD/CEO GlobalView Capital Ltd
2025 isn’t just any year—it’s part of a powerful historical trend known as the ‘Year Ending in 5’ effect. This phenomenon is one of the most consistent in the stock market and has been evident for decades. Years ending in 5 have delivered the highest average returns of any year in a decade. In fact, looking back over the last century, the stock market during these years has consistently outperformed others, often by a significant margin.
If you want to be prepared for this rare opportunity, the time to act is now.
Take away from this summit includes:
How to construct a resilient and Powerful Portfolio that adapts to market changes.
- What to expect from the market and economy in 2025 based on 10 years cycle.
- Why 2025 is a statistically extraordinary year, for reasons that only happen once every decade.
- How to anticipate big sector moves in 2025
- Understanding the cycle of 10 years opportunities time frames that is about to start!
- 10 golden stocks for 2025
Date: December 7, 2025
Fee: 60k
Venue: Zoom
If you want to be among successful investors and traders in 2025, send Yes to: 08028164085, 08179547605 now.
Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
08028164085
